UP UP AND AWAY – THE TREND OF GLOBAL #AVIATION
(Posted 17th January 2018)
- The industry-wide EBIT profit margin remained broadly unchanged in Q3 relative to a year ago, at a robust 14.7% of revenues. A decline in the margin in the North American region was partly offset by increases elsewhere.
- Global airline share prices ended 2017 almost 29% higher than where they started, with sizeable gains for European and Asia Pacific airlines. Airline shares outperformed the global equity market by 7 percentage points.
- Industry-wide passenger yields are currently broadly unchanged from where they were a year ago. Against a backdrop of robust global economic growth, and rising input costs, we forecast yields to rise modestly in 2018.
- Indeed, oil prices continued to trend upwards into the New Year, driven by OPEC-led production cuts. At the time of writing, the Brent crude oil price is around $70/bbl – its highest level since December 2014.
- Year-on-year growth in both passenger and freight volumes is carrying solid momentum into 2018, alongside elevated load factors: the seasonally adjusted (SA) passenger load factor rose above 82% for the first time on record in November, while the SA freight load factor is continuing to maintain levels last seen in late-2014.
- The ongoing pick-up in global trade conditions is continuing to support premium-class demand, particularly on some key markets to, from, and within the important manufacturing region of Asia.