(Posted 11th December 2025)
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) presented its outlook for Africa as part of the 2026 global industry forecast during today’s Africa media roundtable. While Africa is expected to outpace global traffic growth next year, the region continues to face some of the world’s toughest operating conditions—resulting in the smallest share of global industry profit and extremely thin margins.
Growth Ahead of Global Trends, but Profitability Remains Weak
IATA forecasts global air travel growth of 4.9% in 2026, slightly below the 5.2% expected in 2025. Africa is projected to exceed the global average with 6.0% growth in 2026. Cargo demand will grow 2.6% globally in 2026, while Africa’s growth will be slightly lower at 2%.
Despite above-average demand, the financial outlook remains challenging. Of the $41 billion in global net profit forecast for 2026 (3.9% margin), African carriers are expected to generate just $200 million in combined profits, representing a 1.3% margin—the lowest of all regions. This equates to $1.3 in profit per passenger, compared to a global average of $7.9.
“Demand for air travel in Africa is rising faster than in many other parts of the world, but profitability is not keeping pace. With margins of just 1.3%, African airlines are capturing only a fraction of aviation’s economic value. Addressing the barriers that constrain growth is essential to ensure the region’s traffic expansion also delivers financial strength,” said Kamil Al-Awadhi, IATA Regional Vice President, Africa and Middle East.
High Costs and Structural Barriers Constrain African Aviation
IATA emphasized that African airlines continue to operate in one of the world’s most difficult environments. Key constraints include:
- Low GDP per capita: limiting demand and raising price sensitivity.
- High operating costs compared to global average: Fuel prices: +17% higher, Taxes and charges: +12–15% higher, Air navigation charges: +10%, Maintenance, insurance, and capital costs: +6–10%.
- Limited connectivity: Only 19% of intra-African routes have direct flights.
- Blocked Funds: Africa Remains the Largest Contributor. Of the $1.2 billion in airline funds blocked globally as of October, Africa accounts for 79% ($954 million). Algeria is now the largest blocked-funds market.
Long-Term Potential Remains Strong
Despite current challenges, Africa’s aviation sector has substantial long-term opportunity. Over the next 20 years, Africa’s market is forecast to grow 4.1% annually, reaching 411 million passengers—the world’s third-fastest growth rate. Realizing this potential will require focused reforms to reduce barriers, improve affordability, and expand connectivity.Recent progress on visa openness is an encouraging example:
- Five countries now offer visa-free entry to all African nationals (Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, Seychelles, Ghana).
- 28% of intra-African travel scenarios are now visa-free—up from 20% in 2016.
- 26 countries now offer e-visas, up from 17% in 2016.
These improvements demonstrate momentum toward greater mobility, trade, and regional integration.
Government Action Critical to Unlock Africa’s Aviation Potential
IATA called on African governments to work in collaboration with industry and pursue four priority actions: - Recognize aviation as a strategic economic enabler—not a revenue source—and avoid excessive taxes and charges.
- Invest in efficient, scalable infrastructure without passing unsustainable costs to airlines and travelers.
- Facilitate market access and competition by advancing the implementation of the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM.
- Improve affordability and strengthen connectivity to unlock wider economic and social benefits.
“Africa’s aviation potential is immense. With the third-fastest growth rate in the world over the next two decades, the continent could serve more than 400 million passengers annually by 2044. We’re already seeing encouraging steps—like improved visa openness and e-visa adoption—that support greater mobility and integration. But turning potential into performance requires action. Governments must treat aviation as a catalyst for development, not a source of revenue. That means reducing costs, improving infrastructure, and advancing market liberalization through the Yamoussoukro Decision and SAATM. With the right policy support, aviation can be a powerful driver of economic transformation across Africa,” concluded Al-Awadhi.
