(Posted 07th January 2025)
Courtesy of Aero Trail Ltd. and Mr. Alex Koech
Introduction.
According to International Air Transport Association (IATA)‘s latest projections, global passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025, a 6.7% increase compared to 2024, marking the first time they exceed five billion. Total industry revenues are forecasted at $1.007 trillion, a 4.4% rise from 2024, driven by declining oil and fuel prices. This will also be the first time industry revenues surpass $1 trillion. Net profits are projected at $36.6 billion, representing a 3.6% net profit margin, up from $31.5 billion (3.3%) in 2024. Average net profit per passenger is expected to be $7.0, an improvement from $6.4 in 2024 but below the $7.9 high of 2023. Operating profit for 2025 is anticipated to reach $67.5 billion, with a 6.7% operating margin (up from 6.4% in 2024). Return on invested capital (ROIC) is estimated at 6.8%, while cargo volumes are forecasted to rise to 72.5 million tonnes, a 5.8% growth from 2024.
African Aviation: Projections and Statistics.
Egyptian airports experienced notable growth in 2024. Excluding Cairo International Airport, passenger numbers surpassed 22 million, up 9% from 2023’s 20 million. Flights at these airports also increased by 3% to 167,684 compared to 162,770 in 2023. Cairo International Airport, Egypt’s major hub, recorded 28.775 million passengers (up from 26.463 million in 2023) and handled 211,664 flights (an increase from 198,943). Egypt aims to boost passenger numbers to 72.2 million annually by 2025 and 110 million by 2030, with tourism numbers rising to 15.3 million in 2024 (a 5% increase). The country targets 30 million tourists by 2028.
South Africa’s FlySafair was named Africa’s most on-time airline in 2024 by Cirium, achieving an impressive 93.82% on-time performance (OTP) from over 57,000 flights tracked. It also recorded a 99.86% completion factor, reflecting minimal cancellations.
Airbus delivered approximately 760 aircraft in 2024, narrowly missing its target of 770 due to supply chain challenges. December deliveries reached about 120 aircraft, the highest monthly total in recent years, surpassing December 2023’s 112. Airbus Aircraft had aimed for 800 deliveries in 2024 but ended the year with just 643 jets by November, slightly higher than the 735 total deliveries in 2023. In contrast, Boeing experienced a significant 34% drop in deliveries, handing over only 341 aircraft in 2024 compared to 513 in 2023. This marked Boeing’s lowest output since the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. The company delivered 200 MAX 8s, 42 MAX 8-200s, and 21 MAX 9s, totaling 131 fewer 737 models than in 2023. Boeing also delivered just 50 Dreamliners, down from 73 the previous year. Embraer stood out among major OEMs, meeting 100% of its delivery target with 73 aircraft in 2024.
Air Service Agreements (ASA’s) and Airlines Agreements/Partnerships.
After nearly a decade of suspension due to security concerns, Morocco and Libya are set to restore direct air and sea connections in 2025. On December 25, 2024, Morocco’s Minister of Transport and Logistics, Abdel Samad Qaiouh, met with Libya’s Minister of Communications, Salem Al-Shahoubi, in Rabat during the 29th Extraordinary Session of the ACAO Arab Civil Aviation Organization. Air links were initially halted on February 16, 2015, due to security restrictions barring Libyan planes from Moroccan airspace.
Cairo International Airport (CAI) is enhancing its passenger experience through a strategic partnership between Hong Kong-based Plaza Premium Group (PPG), Egypt Aviation Services (EAS), and Cairo Airport Company (CAC). Under this joint venture, PPG will manage, operate, and commercialize six lounges across CAI’s terminals. Leveraging its global expertise, PPG aims to transform these spaces into premium facilities rebranded as Plaza Premium Lounges by CAC and EAS, setting a new benchmark for airport hospitality in Egypt.
Kenya Airways (KQ) remains committed to exploring an MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) partnership with South African Airways’ (SAA) maintenance subsidiary, SAA Technical (SOC) Ltd. While plans for a pan-African airline group detailed in 2021 were stalled due to post-pandemic restructuring, both airlines have since returned to profitability. This progress reignites the potential for collaboration, particularly in leveraging SAA Technical’s expertise to optimize maintenance services, strengthening both airlines’ operational capabilities.
Routes and Airline Connectivity.
China Eastern Airlines Global is taking a significant step to strengthen ties between China and Morocco by launching a new route connecting Shanghai and Casablanca via Marseille, France. The service, commencing January 19, 2025, marks a milestone in the growing relationship between the two nations.
In the UK, holiday provider TUI has announced seasonal flights from East Midlands Airport to Boa Vista, Cape Verde. Starting May 3, 2025, flights will operate twice weekly, on Wednesdays and Saturdays, through October, with a reduced schedule of Wednesday-only flights from November 2025 to May 2026.
Royal Air Maroc (RAM) will launch a direct route linking Rabat to Dakhla in Western Sahara. The twice-weekly flights, operating on Wednesdays and Fridays starting January 15, aim to enhance domestic connectivity within Morocco.
Canary Islands-based airline BINTER CANARIAS is promoting discounted flights between Agadir, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Available from February 1 to June 30, 2025, round-trip fares start at MAD 524 ($52), offering an affordable travel option in the region.
In East Africa, Kenya Airways has resumed flights to Dzaoudzi, Mayotte, following a temporary suspension due to Tropical Cyclone Chido. Operations resumed after clearance from Mayotte authorities on December 31, 2024.
Meanwhile, Aeroitalia ’s plans for a Tunis–Catania route have encountered delays. Initially scheduled for December 18, 2024, and later for summer 2025, the route remains suspended, with reports suggesting that Tunisian authorities proposed alternate airports, which Aeroitalia declined. The lack of clarity leaves the future of this route uncertain.
Airline Fleets and ACMI’s.
Ethiopian Airlines has taken delivery of its third Airbus A350-1000, marking another milestone for both the airline and Africa’s aviation sector. Registered as ET-BAY, the aircraft was ferried from Toulouse, France, on December 31, 2024, and arrived in Addis Ababa on January 1, 2025. This state-of-the-art widebody jet is configured to accommodate 395 passengers, with 46 seats in business class and 349 in economy.
The Tanzanian government has expanded its fleet with the addition of a Gulfstream Aerospace G700 (G-VIII). The seven-month-old aircraft, registered as 5H-ONE (HEX Code 0800CC), arrived in Tanzania between December 20 and 22, 2024. Operated by the Tanzania Government Flight Agency, the G700 represents a significant upgrade in the government’s aviation capabilities.
Aviation Infrastructure, Financing & Profitability.
The Federal Government of Nigeria has taken a significant step towards sustainable transport by receiving the first batch of locally assembled Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses. Produced by Lanre Shittu Motors, the buses were delivered to officials of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria at Murtala Muhammed Airport, Lagos. These buses are part of Nigeria’s initiative to reduce carbon emissions and align with global climate targets. They will be deployed for airport shuttle services across the country, highlighting the government’s commitment to eco-friendly infrastructure.
In Algeria, Air Algérie has temporarily closed its Dubai office to facilitate its relocation to a new address. Effective Thursday, the move aims to enhance customer service, with the airline providing alternative contact methods during the transition. This strategic decision underscores the carrier’s focus on improving operational efficiency and customer experience.
Kenya Airways (KQ) will resume trading on the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) in the second week of January, after a suspension lasting over four years. The Capital Markets Authority- Kenya (CMA-K) has opted not to renew the airline’s suspension, which expired on January 5, 2025. KQ’s shares were first suspended in July 2020 due to the Kenya Aviation Management Bill of 2020, a proposal to consolidate the country’s aviation assets, including KQ and the Kenya Airports Authority, into a single entity. The resumption of trading offers relief to thousands of investors who had been unable to access their portfolios.
Awards and Recognition.
Ethiopian Airlines has been honored with the prestigious “Close Collaboration Award” from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Co., Ltd. This recognition highlights the airline’s robust partnership with the airport, which has played a key role in enhancing operational efficiency and service delivery. Ethiopian Airlines currently operates 10 weekly passenger flights from Guangzhou Baiyun, underscoring its dedication to providing seamless travel experiences and strengthening its presence in the region. This award serves as a testament to the airline’s commitment to excellence in customer service and operational collaboration.
Lawsuits.
In a landmark decision, Nigeria’s Federal High Court in Lagos has ruled that Export Development Canada | Exportation et développement Canada (EDC), a Canadian financier, can repossess an aircraft leased to Arik Air. This ruling marks the first application of the Cape Town Convention in the country, ending the era of using court orders to delay justice and paving the way for clearer aviation finance practices.
A Nigerian family is demanding $1 million in damages from Kenya Airways after a clerical error caused the mishandling of their daughter’s travel plans. The family had booked return tickets for a Christmas trip to the UK via Wakanow.com, but during a layover at Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on December 21, 2024, their minor daughter was denied boarding due to discrepancies in passport numbers, despite having proper documentation.
A 49-year-old Air Zimbabwe Private Limited employee is facing charges for allegedly siphoning Jet A1 fuel from a Boeing 737 at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport.The theft occurred between November 15 and 22, 2024, with the employee draining fuel from the aircraft, which had 6.3 tonnes of fuel onboard.
Aviation Accidents/Incidents.
An Airbus A321 operated by Ural Airlines, en route from Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt to Yekaterinburg, Russia, made an emergency return landing in Sharm El Sheikh after a technical malfunction was reported just 10 minutes after takeoff. The aircraft, carrying 236 passengers, returned to the airport following a sudden engine failure, with pilots requesting immediate assistance.
Neos SpA Flight NO6243, a Boeing 737-800, was forced to return to Sharm El Sheikh International Airport (SSH) after suffering an electrical failure involving a LED light bar in the passenger cabin. The issue was quickly addressed by a flight attendant using a fire extinguisher, and the aircraft safely returned to the airport en route to Roma-Fiumicino Airport in Italy.
In the Eastern Cape of South Africa, a Piper PA-36-285 Pawnee Brave was substantially damaged when its landing gear failed upon landing in a dirt agricultural strip in Sundays River Valley. The pilot was uninjured, though the aircraft sustained significant damage.
On December 30, 2024, approximately 500kg of space debris, identified as a separation ring from a rocket, fell onto a village in Makueni County, Kenya. The fragment, over eight feet in diameter and weighing more than 1,000 lbs, was recovered by the Kenya Space Agency. Investigations are ongoing to determine how the debris ended up in a populated area.
In other news:
Air traffic controllers at the Regional Air Navigation Center in Dakar, Senegal have warned of impending restrictive measures on air traffic unless their demands for reduced workload are addressed. They cited the current workload as “excessive” and “difficult to manage” due to staffing shortages and outdated technical equipment at both the regional center and Diass Airport control tower, which significantly hampers air navigation services.
The Ghana Airports Company Limited (GACL) has closed McDan Aviation’s private air charter terminal at Kotoka International Airport due to an outstanding debt exceeding $3 million. The debt, which includes unpaid land leases, rentals, and terminal charges, remains unresolved despite an extended deadline that passed over Christmas.
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