(Posted 17th December 2024)
Introduction.
The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) has imposed significant fines on Ethiopian Airlines (ET) and Etihad Airways (EY) for operating flights in restricted airspace using other airlines’ designator codes. Ethiopian Airlines received a $425,000 penalty for conducting flights between Ethiopia and Djibouti with United Airlines‘ (UA) code, violating U.S. airspace restrictions for U.S. operators. Despite receiving an investigation letter from the Department’s Office of Aviation Consumer Protection (OACP), Ethiopian Airlines continued the operations, directly breaching its operational authority. Similarly, Etihad Airways was fined $400,000 for operating flights between the United Arab Emirates and the United States with JetBlueAirways’ (B6) designator code.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has updated the EU Air Safety List, banning AIR TANZANIA COMPANY LIMITED from EU airspace due to safety concerns identified by the EASA – European Union Aviation Safety Agency. The airline was also denied Third Country Operator (TCO) authorisation. Currently, 129 airlines are banned from operating in EU skies, including 100 airlines from 15 states with inadequate aviation oversight, 22 airlines from Russia, and 7 others due to critical safety deficiencies. Additionally, Iran Air and Air Koryo face operational restrictions, limiting their EU access to specific aircraft types.
African Aviation: Projections and Statistics.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that as of October 2024, $1.7 billion in airline funds remained blocked globally, with Africa accounting for 59% of this total ($1 billion). While significant progress was made in reducing blocked funds in Algeria (from $286 million in April to $193 million in October) and Ethiopia (from $149 million to $43 million), these gains were offset by increases in the XAF Zone (+$84 million), XOF Zone (+$73 million), and Mozambique(+$84 million).
IATA forecasts severe supply chain disruptions will continue into 2025, impacting costs and limiting growth. Aircraft deliveries are expected to fall short, with only 1,254 deliveries in 2024, representing a 30% shortfall, while 2025 deliveries are projected to reach 1,802—still below earlier expectations. The backlog of unfulfilled orders has reached a record 17,000 planes, translating to a 14-year fulfillment timeline at current delivery rates, twice the pre-2019 six-year average. Aging fleets compound the issue, with the global fleet’s average age reaching a record 14.8 years, up from 13.6 years (1990-2024), increasing maintenance, fuel, and capital costs. Additionally, approximately 14% of the global fleet is grounded, including 700 aircraft parked for engine inspections, while leasing rates for narrow-body aircraft have risen by 20-30% compared to 2019.
On sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), global production doubled to 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion liters) in 2024 but still fell short of the anticipated 1.5 million tonnes due to delays in U.S. SAF production ramp-ups. SAF accounted for 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of renewable fuel capacity. By 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion liters), representing 0.7% of jet fuel production and 13% of renewable fuel capacity. IATA emphasizes the need for 3,000 to 6,500 new renewable fuel plants to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with annual investments of $128 billion over 30 years—far below the $280 billion annually invested in solar and wind markets from 2004 to 2022.
IATA’s financial outlook predicts airlines net profit of $36.6 billion in 2025 (3.6% margin), up from $31.5 billion in 2024 (3.3%). Average net profit per passenger is expected to improve to $7.0, compared to $6.4 in 2024 but below the 2023 peak of $7.9. Operating profit in 2025 is projected at $67.5 billion (6.7% margin), with total industry revenues surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, a 4.4% increase over 2024. Expenses are expected to grow by 4% to $940 billion, while passenger numbers will reach 5.2 billion, marking a 6.7% rise and exceeding the five billion mark for the first time. Cargo volumes are forecast to increase by 5.8% to 72.5 million tonnes.
Egypt‘s aviation sector has made significant progress, rising 36 positions to 27th place in the Air Transport Infrastructure Index as of 2024. In the Air Transport Services Efficiency Index, Egypt improved from 40th in 2019 to 23rd in 2024, while advancing to 31st in the Airport Connectivity Index,up from 38th. Since 2014, Egypt has expanded airport capacity by 28.5%, handling 66.2 million passengers in 2023, compared to 51.5 million in 2014.
Nigeria‘s aviation industry, however, paints a grim picture, with over 50 airlines ceasing operations in the past 20 years and many others on the brink of collapse. At a recent Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development conference on implementing the Cape Town Convention and Aircraft Protocolin Abuja, stakeholders highlighted the decline of defunct carriers such as Nigerian Airways, ADC Airlines, Afrijet Airlines, and Bellview Airline, raising concerns about systemic challenges that have led to their demise.
In South Africa, domestic air travel costs have surged significantly. According to Business Tech, round-trip fares for Johannesburg-Cape Town flights rose by 43.4%, from R4,830 in 2022 to R6,928 in 2024, while Johannesburg-Durban fares increased by 31.7%, from R2,977 to R3,920. Key drivers include rising jet fuel prices, currency volatility, and ongoing maintenance challenges, exacerbating the cost burden on travelers and the industry.
Air Service Agreements (ASA’s) and Airlines Agreements/Partnerships.
Etihad Airways has entered into a codeshare agreement with Air Seychelles, enabling seamless travel on a single booking. The agreement grants customers access to Etihad’s global destinations and Mahe, Seychelles, with smooth connections via Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi. This partnership aims to enhance travel options between the Middle East and the Indian Ocean region.
Ethiopian Airlines Group has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Xiamen Iport Group Co., Ltd. and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with ChinaHenan Aviation Group Co., Ltd. These agreements are designed to drive high-quality growth and deeper integration of the cargo business, enabling the parties to engage more extensively and effectively in the global economic system.
Wesgro has partnered with the VC Unconference and the AfricArena Grand Summit to position Cape Town and the Western Cape as leading investment destinations. The VC Unconference offered a dynamic platform for start-up funders to exchange ideas, share innovations, and address challenges, aiming to strengthen the investment process across Africa. Meanwhile, the AfricArena Grand Summit brought together over 50 start-ups from regional events, spanning Seed to Growth stages, alongside investors and policymakers, fostering collaboration to unlock new investment opportunities.
Routes and Airline Connectivity.
Etihad Airways has resumed flights to Nairobi after several delays, with operations beginning on December 15, 2024. The airline will operate four weekly non-stop flights between Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport (AUH) and Nairobi’s Jomo Kenyatta International Airport(NBO), bringing Etihad’s African destinations to five, including Johannesburg, Cairo, Mahe, and Casablanca.
flynas inaugurated a new route on December 11, 2024, connecting Madinah’s Prince Mohammed Bin Abdulaziz International Airport and Cairo’s Sphinx International Airport. Operating three times weekly on Sundays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, the route aligns with Saudi Arabia‘s Civil Aviation Strategy, which aims to boost passenger traffic and tourism by 2030.
Fly Skyward Express launched direct flights between Mombasa, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on December 11, 2024, complementing its Nairobi-Dar es Salaam route, which operates thrice weekly on Mondays, Fridays, and Sundays. With fares starting at Ksh18,500, the new service strengthens bilateral relations between Kenya and Tanzania, fostering trade, tourism, and cultural exchange.
Turkish Airlines will resume flights between Benghazi, Libya and Istanbul on January 14, 2025, after a decade-long suspension due to domestic tensions. The airline will operate three weekly flights. Earlier in March 2024, Turkish Airlines had resumed flights to Libya’s capital, Tripoli, following a similar 10-year hiatus.
Air Arabia Egypt will expand its Middle East network with a new weekly flight between Alexandria’s Borg El Arab Airport (HBE) and Taif Regional Airport (TIF) in Saudi Arabia. Scheduled to launch on February 21, 2025, the route will be operated using Airbus A320 aircraft, catering to both business and leisure travelers.
Corendon Airlines Europe has announced new weekly charter flights connecting Eastern European cities with Hurghada, Egypt, starting in late December 2024. Using Boeing737-800 aircraft, this seasonal expansion addresses increasing demand for Hurghada’s beaches, coral reefs, and resorts, enhancing connectivity from Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Romania.
Kenya Airways will expand its UK network with a new Nairobi-Gatwick route, launching on July 2, 2025. The airline will operate three weekly non-stop flights on Wednesdays, Fridays, and Sundays using Boeing 787 Dreamliners, strengthening its presence in the London market.
Air Seychelles will launch a new direct service between Seychelles International Airport and Abu Dhabi International Airport starting May 24, 2025. The route will operate six times weekly, with flights departing daily except Thursdays from Seychelles and Fridays from Abu Dhabi.
FLY ANGOLA will commence its first international route on December 21, 2024, connecting Benguela’s Catumbela Airport and Windhoek, Namibia. The route will operate three times weekly, offering direct, two-hour non-stop flights.
Kenya Airways (KQ) has suspended flights to Comoros and Mayotte due to the threat of Tropical Cyclone Chido, a powerful storm expected to disrupt operations until Monday, December 16, 2024. Authorities in both regions have issued alerts warning of the cyclone’s potential impact.
Airline Fleets and ACMI’s.
Ethiopian Airlines has taken delivery of its second Airbus A350-1000, registered ET-BAX, making it Africa’s second of the type. Configured to seat 395 passengers (46 in business and 349 in economy), the A350-1000 strengthens Ethiopian’s capacity to meet growing passenger demand while maintaining its position as Africa‘s leading airline. The airline has also expanded its cargo fleet with a three-year-old Boeing 767-300F, registered ET-BBE, previously operated by Air Canada. Additionally, Ethiopian has added a 4.9-year-old Boeing 777-300ER on lease, now registered as ET-BBG.
EGYPTAIR has taken delivery of a brand-new Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, registered ZU-GFZ. Powered by Rolls-Royceengines, the aircraft accommodates 309 passengers, including 30 in business class and 279 in economy.
Madagascar Airlines has enhanced its operations with the arrival of a leased ATR 72-500 on an ACMI agreement. With a capacity of 72 seats, the aircraft bolsters the airline’s fleet ahead of the high season.
LIBYAN EXPRESS – ??????? ??????? added a 34-year-old Boeing 737-400 (MSN 24558) to its fleet on December 10, 2024. Previously operated by Sky Mali from 2021 to 2024, the aircraft arrived at Tripoli-Mitiga International Airport from Chisinau, Moldova.
Africa Charter Airlines has expanded its freighter fleet with a second Boeing 737-400. The 33-year-old aircraft, previously operated by ASL Aviation Group’s Irish subsidiary and as a passenger jet for FlySafair between 2013 and 2014, arrived in Johannesburg on December 7, 2024.
Tanzanian Coastal Air received two new Cessna Aircraft CompanyGrand Caravan EX aircraft (MSN 208B5831 and 208B5830) on December 14, 2024, further strengthening its regional operations.
Air Zimbabwe Private Limited officially retired its Falcon 7X, formerly used as Zimbabwe’s presidential jet. Registered Z-AZM (MSN 299), the aircraft completed its final flight under Zimbabwean registration on July 11, 2024, from Harare International to Johannesburg Lanseria. It remained parked at Lanseria for over two months before being re-registered in Aruba as P4-MTP under the management of AXIS Aviation San Marino, marking a first for the operator.
Aviation Infrastructure, Financing & Profitability.
International Civil Aviation Organization, in collaboration with the Somali Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), has achieved a major milestone in Somalia with the successful testing of new Air Traffic Management (ATM) and communication systems in Mogadishu. The Final Site Acceptance Test (FSAT), conducted from November 17-22, 2024, confirmed the implementation of modern air navigation systems at both the Mogadishu Area Control Centre and Airport Tower. The formal FSAT certification on November 21 marked the completion of this critical phase, further advancing ICAO’s ongoing efforts to enhance Somalia’s air navigation capabilities.
Abdessamad Kayouh, Morocco’s Minister of Transport and Logistics, announced plans for a new airport in Casablanca, to be named Mohammed V.Positioned directly opposite the existing airport, the new facility will serve as a hub for long-haul flights and is designed to accommodate 20 million passengers, strengthening global connectivity.
The Liberian government is in advanced negotiations to award the renovation of Roberts International Airport (RIA) to Turkey’s Group Albayrak. However, the move has sparked controversy, with labor unions and civil society groups raising concerns over a lack of transparency, political affiliations, and potential security risks, alleging Albayrak received unfair favoritism.
Ekiti Agro-Allied International Cargo Airport (EAICA) in Ado-Ekiti has received approval from the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) to commence non-scheduled flight operations. In a letter dated December 11, 2024, addressed to the state governor, the NCAA approved Visual Flight Rules (VFR) operations for six months, from December 15, 2024, to June 15, 2025.
Awards and Recognition.
Jambojet was honoured at the on 6th Dcember at the 2024 Company Of The Year Awards (COYA) with two recognition in Human resiurces and in Innovation, ICT & Knowledge Management. These wins celebrate the airline commitment to a thriving workplace and cutting-edge technology that elevates teh travel experience.
Moroccan air carrier Royal Air Maroc (RAM) has been named “Best Airline in Africa” for the second year in a row at the 21st edition of the GT Tested Reader Survey Awards, organized by American magazine Global Traveler.
Aviation Accidents/Incidents.
Allied Air flight AJK206, a Boeing 737-400 (SF), veered off the right side of runway 22 after landing at Abuja International Airport (ABV), Nigeria, on December 11, 2024. The aircraft came to rest in a grassy area, temporarily rendering the runway inoperable.
On December 15, 2024, a Piper PA-38-112 Tomahawk lost control during a downwind landing on runway 02 at Saldanha Vredenburg Airfield (FASD) in Saldanha, Western Cape. The aircraft flipped upside down near the runway, causing substantial damage, while the student pilot sustained moderate injuries.
Singapore Airlines flight SQ481 from Johannesburg to Singapore experienced multiple delays, pushing its departure from December 11 to December 13, 2024, due to a technical issue with the aircraft. Earlier in the week, a similar incident occurred when flight SQ479 from Cape Town to Singapore was delayed for approximately 32 hours on December 10 due to a technical fault. A replacement part had to be flown in from Singapore, and the flight eventually departed on December 13 as SQ9479.
In other news:
Russian officials at the Russian Embassy in Nairobi announced that the list of nations eligible for its single-entry electronic visa (e-visa) now includes citizens from Eswatini, Kenya, and Zimbabwe.
On December 11, 2024, Ghanaian medical doctor Dr. Joyce Emefa Addo-Klah emerged as the heroine aboard KLM Royal Dutch Airlines flight KL589 from Amsterdam to Accra when she successfully responded to an in-flight medical emergency, saving a passenger’s life four hours into the journey.
Nigerian start-up airline Umzaa Air secured its Air Operator Certificate from the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority on December 12, 2024. As part of NG Eagle, Umzaa Air operates a fleet of three Dash 8-Q400 aircraft (5N-CAC, 5N-CAE, and 5N-CAH), each configured with 74 all-economy seats. The airline plans to launch operations from its Abujahub to six domestic destinations.
Nigeria’s Federal Government has proposed the Fly Nigeria Act, a legislative framework aimed at revitalizing the aviation sector by mandating that all government-funded travel prioritize Nigerian flag carriers. Aviation Minister Festus Keyamo unveiled the proposal during a stakeholder engagement session, highlighting its potential to boost the country’s aviation industry.
The Airline Association of South Africa (AASA) has raised concerns over a jet fuel crisis at OR Tambo International Airport, which has caused widespread flight delays and cancellations during South Africa’s peak holiday travel season. AASA CEO Aaron Munetsi criticized the lack of resilience in the airport’s refueling system, highlighting its impact on passengers and airlines.
Meanwhile, a dumpsite near Entebbe International Airport is raising safety concerns about bird strikes on aircraft. Pilots and airline operators have expressed alarm over the continued use of the Nkumba waste site, nearly four months after the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA)was ordered to cease operations there. The site has been in use since the collapse of the Kitezi landfill in August, which tragically killed 34 people, with 28 still missing.
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