(Posted 30th January 2025)
The air cargo sector is a useful barometer of intra-regional and global trade and economic performance. Although air cargo volumes are a fraction of the tonnage carried by sea, road, river and rail, items transported by aircraft are generally high-value items (computer chips, smart phones, tablets, jewellery, documents etc.) and perishables (food, flowers, pharmaceuticals, transplant organs, etc.) while e-commerce also accounts for a steadily increasing segment of the market.
African airlines in 2024
- saw 8.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo.
- increased their cargo capacity by 13.6% year-on-year
- achieving a 41.8% cargo load factor (i.e. less than half of the available capacity was taken up by the market)
- However, in December 2024 demand fell by -0.9% year-on-year,
- which was the lowest of all regions
- and capacity increased 1.8%.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for full year 2024 and December 2024 global air cargo market performance showing:
- Full-year demand for 2024, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased 11.3% (12.2% for international operations) compared to 2023. Full-year 2024 demand exceeded the record volumes set in 2021.
- Full-year capacity in 2024, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 7.4% compared to 2023 (9.6% for international operations).
- Full-year yields averaged 1.6% lower than 2023 but 39% higher than in 2019.
- December 2024 brought the year to a close with continued strong performance. Global demand was 6.1% above December 2023 levels (7.0% for international operations). Global capacity was 3.7% above December 2023 levels (5.2% for international operations). Cargo yields were 6.6% higher than December 2023 (and 53.4% higher than in December 2019).
“Air cargo was the standout performer in 2024 with airlines moving more air cargo than ever before. Importantly, it was a year of profitable growth. Demand, up 11.3% year-on-year, was boosted by particularly strong e-commerce and various ocean shipping restrictions. This combined with airspace restrictions which limited capacity on some key long-haul routes to Asia helped to keep yields at exceptionally high levels. While average yields continued to soften from peaks in 2021-2022 they averaged 39% higher than 2019,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
Looking to 2025, IATA estimates growth to moderate to 5.8%, aligned with historical performance. “Economic fundamentals point to another good year for air cargo—with oil prices on a downward trajectory and trade continuing to grow. There is no doubt, however, that the air cargo industry will be challenged to adapt to unfolding geopolitical shifts. The first week of the Trump administration demonstrated its strong interest in using tariffs as a policy tool that could bring a double whammy for air cargo—boosting inflation and deflating trade,” added Walsh.
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- Global trade in goods grew by 3.6% annually in 2024.
- In December, both the manufacturing output Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.2) and new export orders PMI (48.2) were below the critical threshold represented by the 50 mark, indicating a decline in global manufacturing production and exports.
- US headline inflation, based on the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in December. In the same month, the inflation rate in the EU increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%. China’s consumer inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1% in December, marking the fourth consecutive year-on-year decline and reinforcing concerns about an economic slowdown.
Regional Performance
Asia-Pacific airlines saw 14.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024, the strongest among the regions. Capacity increased by 11.3% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand increased 8.4% and capacity increased 6.3%.
North American carriers saw 6.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024, the lowest of all regions. Capacity increased by 3.4% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand increased 5.3% and capacity increased 2.1%.
European carriers saw 11.2% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 7.8% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand increased 5.1% and capacity increased 3.7%.
Middle Eastern carriers saw 13% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 5.5% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand increased 3.3% and capacity increased 0.2%.
Latin American carriers saw 12.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 7.9% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand increased 10.9%, the highest of all regions and capacity increased 8.4%.
African airlines saw 8.5% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in 2024. Capacity increased by 13.6% year-on-year. December year-on-year demand decreased by -0.9%, the lowest of all regions and capacity increased 1.8%.
Trade Lane Growth: International routes experienced exceptional traffic levels for the 17th consecutive month with a 7% year-on-year increase in December. Airlines are benefiting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.
| Trade Lane | YOY Growth | Notes | Market Share of Industry* |
| Asia-North America | +8% | 14 consecutive months of growth | 24.50% |
| Europe-Asia
|
+10.3% | 22 consecutive months of growth | 20.40% |
| Middle East-Europe
|
+6.1% | 17 consecutive months of growth | 5.70% |
| Middle East-Asia
|
+7.6% | 19 consecutive months of growth | 7.40% |
| Within Asia
|
+11.0% | 14 consecutive months of growth | 6.90% |
| Within Europe | +9.1% | 13 consecutive months of growth | 2.0% |
| North America-Europe | +3.4% | 11 consecutive months of growth | 13.40% |
| Africa-Asia | -4.0% | N/A | 1.40% |
* Route Area’s CTK YoY growth, along with counting streaks of growth, and market share by region. Route area represents segment data and do not reflect connection traffic. e.g. shipments from Asia to Europe and vice versa, connecting in the Middle East, correspond to two different segments: Europe-Middle East and Middle East – Asia, but not under Europe-Asia.
>Read the latest Air Cargo Market Analysis
