(Posted 18th July 2024)
Airbus said airlines will need 2,470 freighters over the next 20 years, of which 940 will be new builds and 1,530 will be used passenger jets converted to all-cargo configuration. Airbus said the industry will take delivery of 970 narrowbody, 880 midsize and 620 large freighters.
The long-range forecast is lower than a year ago by 40 units, with 60 fewer converted freighters produced than previously expected. Most of the reductions are in the narrowbody category. Airbus last year projected 1,020 new and converted standard-size freighters would be produced over the next two decades. A glut of small cargo jets has significantly reduced orders this year for passenger-to-freighter conversions, according to industry officials.
The Airbus analysis said global air cargo traffic will grow at a 3.1% compound annual rate between 2027 and 2043 on the back of continued expansion in global trade and economic output. Express shipments will grow 4.4% annually, outpacing growth of general cargo at 2.7% between 2027 and 2043. The figures reflect the transportation market’s correction from unprecedented highs during the pandemic. The manufacturer’s previous forecast showed the express cargo sector growing at a 4.9% annual rate for the period 2019 to 2042.
Express cargo will represent 25% of the market in 20 years, up from 20% in 2023 and 17% in 2019, Airbus said.
Logistics providers and analysts say widebody freighter capacity is very tight on major trade routes, especially out of Asia, because demand is up 12% this year and e-commerce companies in China are soaking up available space.
