Passenger Demand Growth Accelerates to 10% in January

 

(Posted 28th February 2025)

 

During the period under review, African airlines:

• Reported a 14.9% year-on-year increase in demand for passenger travel
• Increased capacity by 11.2%
• Achieving a passenger load factor of 75.9% (+2.4 percentage points on Jan 2024)
• Saw a 3.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo
• Increased cargo capacity by 5.4%*

 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for January 2025 global passenger demand with the following highlights:

•    Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 10.0% compared to January 2024. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), was up 7.1% year-on-year. The January load factor was 82.1% (+2.2 ppt compared to January 2024), an all-time high for January.

•    International demand rose 12.4% compared to January 2024. Capacity was up 8.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.6% (+2.7 ppt compared to January 2024), an all-time high for January.

•    Domestic demand rose 6.1% compared to January 2024. Capacity was up 4.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.2% (+1.2 ppt compared to January 2024), an all-time high for January.

“We’ve seen a notable acceleration in demand this January, with a particularly strong performance by carriers based in the Asia-Pacific region. The record high load factors that accompany this strong demand are yet another reminder of the persistent supply chain issues in the aerospace sector,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“The strong growth in demand aligns with the results of our latest passenger survey (November 2024) in which 94% of travelers indicted that they planned to travel as much or more in the coming 12 months than they did in the past year. Airlines are doing a good job of accommodating growing demand amid fleet and infrastructure constraints with satisfaction levels above 95%, and nearly 80% of travelers agreeing that air travel is good value for money. Choice is an important component of this satisfaction. Some 70% prefer to pay the lowest fare and customize the additional services they need. It is important for regulators to clearly understand that the majority of travelers do not want to pay automatically for services they don’t need,” said Walsh.

 

Air passenger market in detail – January 2025

January 2025 (% year-on-year) World share1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Total Market 100% 10.0% 7.1% 2.2% 82.1% Africa 2.2% 15.0% 11.5% 2.3% 75.9% Asia Pacific 33.5% 16.1% 11.6% 3.3% 84.2% Europe 26.7% 7.4% 5.3% 1.5% 79.8% Latin America 5.3% 7.9% 9.9% -1.5% 83.3% Middle East 9.4% 9.6% 4.3% 4.0% 83.9% North America 22.9% 3.4% 2.1% 1.0% 80.5%

1% of industry RPKs in 2024

 

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets

All regions showed growth for international passenger markets in January 2025 compared to January 2024, with Asia-Pacific demand particularly strong. All markets except Europe and North America showed strong acceleration in January compared to December 2024. Load factors rose year-on-year in all markets except Latin America.

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 21.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 16.5% year-on-year and the load factor was 86.7% (+3.8 ppt compared to January 2024). Traffic from Northeast Asia was particularly strong.

European carriers had an 8.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 6.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 79.2% (+1.8 ppt compared to January 2024).

Middle Eastern carriers saw an 9.6% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 4.4% year-on-year and the load factor was 83.8% (+4.0 ppt compared to January 2024). Results in this region have been underpinned by a gradual return of traffic in Israel, and strong performance of the Gulf carriers.

North American carriers saw a 3.8% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was 81.8% (+2.6 ppt compared to January 2024).

Latin American airlines saw an 12.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 15.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.3% (-1.9 ppt compared to January 2024).

African airlines saw a 14.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 11.2% year-on-year. The load factor rose to 75.9% (+2.4 ppt compared to January 2024).

 

 

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic RPK increased 6.1% over the previous year, reflecting particularly strong growth in India (despite engine issues for some carriers), Japan and China. China’s growth of 10.0% was driven by record numbers traveling for the Lunar New Year.  Load factors continued to edge up (+1.2ppt) to hit a record high of 81.2% for January.

 

January 2025 (% year-on-year) World share1 RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) Domestic 38.2% 6.1% 4.5% 1.2% 81.2% Dom. Australia 0.8% 4.7% -2.0% 5.0% 77.4% Dom. Brazil 1.1% 6.6% 6.9% -0.3% 83.0% Dom. China P.R. 11.3% 10.0% 5.7% 3.3% 83.3% Dom. India 1.6% 17.1% 17.2% -0.1% 88.9% Dom. Japan 1.0% 12.1% 6.1% 3.9% 73.8% Dom. US 14.4% 3.0% 2.6% 0.3% 79.6%

¹% of industry RPKs in 2024
Note: the six domestic passenger markets for which broken-down data are available account for approximately 30.2% of global total RPKs and 79.1% of total domestic RPKs

 

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