(Posted 21st March 2026(
Global air travel demand, measured by Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs), is expected to grow by 2.9%- 3.3% per year from 2024 to 2050, according to the Long-Term Demand Projections (LTDP) published by IATA recently. Under all three scenarios that reflect possible long-term economic and population growth, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development, demand for air travel would more than double to 19.5-21.9 trillion by 2050, from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
Under all three scenarios that reflect possible long-term economic and population growth, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development, demand for air travel would more than double to 19.5-21.9 trillion by 2050, from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
While the RPK growth momentum remains strong, the covid pandemic caused a structural break in the historical relationship between global air travel demand and macro-economic growth.
Between 1990 and 2019, global RPK tracked global real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP (in 2021 USD) closely, with both series expanding at nearly identical compound annual growth rates of around 5.2–5.3%.
Under all three scenarios that reflect possible long-term economic and population growth, aviation fuel price trends, the global energy transition, and air transport supply-side capacity development, demand for air travel would more than double to 19.5-21.9 trillion by 2050, from the 9 trillion RPKs seen in 2024.
While the RPK growth momentum remains strong, the covid pandemic caused a structural break in the historical relationship between global air travel demand and macro-economic growth.
Between 1990 and 2019, global RPK tracked global real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP (in 2021 USD) closely, with both series expanding at nearly identical compound annual growth rates of around 5.2–5.3%.
