(Posted 01st November 2026)
2026 marks a major milestone for international aviation climate policy, commemorating ten years since the ICAO Assembly adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), as the only global market-based measure for addressing CO? emissions from international aviation.
It also marks the conclusion of CORSIA’s First Phase (2024-2026), ushering in a pivotal period as airlines prepare to purchase and cancel CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units (CEEUs) to meet their First Phase compliance obligations by January 2028.
The annual Sector’s Growth Factor (SGF) is an important parameter affecting airlines’ yearly offsetting requirements and, therefore, CORSIA’s emission reduction potential across its lifespan.
The chart above presents IATA’s latest estimates of CORSIA’s annual SGF and associated offsetting requirements for 2025 and 2026 under three modeled scenarios, alongside the official 2024 figures. Estimates for 2026 are moderately lower than those for 2025, reflecting both the impact of ongoing geopolitical disruptions on air traffic demand and the higher emissions baseline resulting from the addition of Dominica and Viet Nam to the list of voluntary CORSIA participants from 2026. Based on these updated projections, CORSIA’s First Phase is expected to generate total offsetting demand of between 169.5 and 214.8 million tonnes of CO2.
Yet a significant supply challenge is apparent. Against projected demand of approximately 200 million CEEUs during the First Phase, only around 43 million tagged units are currently available. To help close this gap and support timely industry compliance, IATA has launched the Aviation Carbon Market Compact and the CORSIA Supporting Alliance, bringing together stakeholders across the carbon market ecosystem to address the barriers restricting the supply of eligible emissions units and strengthening the foundations of CORSIA’s long-term success.
