(Posted 30th October 2026)
We have often discussed the dangers of overtourism. And we’ve often used the Maasai Mara Reserve, the northernmost area of the greater Serengeti ecosystem, as an example of what can go wrong. The fear has been that, in the race to compete with Kenya for tourists, Tanzania will follow its example and allow more visitors than the ecosystem can support. But now, there is new hope that both Kenya and Tanzania are committed to a sustainable path.
David Blanton
An Important Shift in Kenya
We’ve written about the plight of Maasai Mara, where wildlife numbers have fallen dramatically. There have been tragic declines of 60–80 % in many non-migratory large mammal populations since the late 1970s. The migration of half a million animals into the Mara has dropped by 73%.
Now we’re seeing a welcome shift, both in tourist numbers and the model of tourism that’s needed. There’s been a reported 50% decline in tourism to the Mara, from about 420,000 in 2023 to 213,000 in 2025. Some in the safari business attribute it to higher entry fees for travelers, making it less competitive.
But Marley Saitoti, Assistant Director of Tourism and Wildlife for the reserve, says it represents a deliberate shift towards a low-volume, high-value tourism model to reduce pressure on the ecosystem. “The Maasai Mara is a relatively small and fragile ecosystem compared to the larger Serengeti-Ngorongoro ecosystem,” he explains. “It cannot sustainably operate as a mass tourism destination.”
In addition, activists in Kenya have launched a new court case against a luxury lodge that they say was built illegally after a moratorium on construction, and in the path of migrating wildlife.
Tanzania, Botswana, Cape Town – Tourism Strategy
In a welcome response to growing international tourism demand, authorities in Tanzania, Botswana, and Cape Town have announced a new “triple bottom line” strategy that combines conservation, local community welfare and tourism. Tanzanian authorities have implemented measures across the Serengeti National Park and the Ngorongoro Conservation Area that include:
- The strict enforcement of fixed daily visitor caps within high-density safari zones, particularly around the Mara River crossing points during the migration.
- Seasonal pricing, imposing higher tariffs during peak seasons and offering incentives for travel during green seasons to smooth out demand curves.
- Safari operators must adhere to mandatory route tracking via GPS telemetry to eliminate off-road driving infractions.
- Operators found violating rules face immediate license revocation or financial penalties earmarked directly for soil remediation programs.
But keeping tourism numbers under control is one thing, keeping the right kind of tourism is another. Low-impact nature tourism should be the focus, and the Serengeti offers this like no other place on earth.
Why then, should a golf course be built next to the park? Tanzanian officials just heralded the opening of the Serengeti Golf Course, built in an area used by migrating wildlife. (See our warning on this four years ago.) Officials said it would give Tanzania a boost in sports tourism, and a way for local youth to learn golf. (!) This strange departure from nature tourism is puzzling, and a dangerous precedent.
Other infrastructure development is taking place in the Park. The government is investing billions of shillings in paved roads and bridges. After recent flooding, it’s clear this is needed to counter the effects of climate change. Tanzania’s Parks Conservation Commissioner Musa Nasoro Kuji says “We are ensuring that construction materials and structural designs are fully compatible with the Serengeti ecosystem and its status as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Our objective is to build infrastructure that can withstand extreme weather while preserving the park’s outstanding universal value.”
Community Benefits
The new Tanzania-Botswana-Cape Town strategy gives a high priority to bringing benefits to people. Tanzania and Botswana have mandates for a fixed percentage of gross income for community development funds. These are to be used for education and healthcare, protection from and compensation for wildlife damage, clean energy and water. Studies show that under current models, tourism produces less than 15% for communities. The new strategy targets up to 45% of gross revenues.
Ngorongoro Tourism – People or Wildlife?
The big question, however, is what happens when governments want people removed, as in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area. We’ve reported on this many times because it’s a landmark case in balancing tourism management and human welfare.
Rather than a choice between local communities and tourism, win-win solutions must be found. A Maasai-led initiative shows a promising path. It’s a dynamic new program that reduces the impact of people and livestock on the ecosystem while improving lives. The Shared Futures Dairy Program, originated within the Maasai community. We’re funding this project and welcome your support.
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